A strategic analysis of calculated risk in junior tennis development

By Jack Newman, CEO, Austin Tennis Academy

Most coaches avoid the hard conversations about expensive tournament investments. That’s not just a disservice—it’s developmental malpractice.

Here’s a conversation that makes most coaches uncomfortable: How do you justify spending thousands of dollars for a kid who might not play a single point?

Last week, I sent Declan Johnstone to the USTA Boys’ 16s National Championships in Kalamazoo as an alternate. His parents invested between $2,000-$2,500 for airfare, hotel, meals, and coaching expenses. Declan didn’t compete in a single match.

It was exactly the right decision. Here’s why.

The ROI Most Coaches Won’t Calculate

When I presented the alternate opportunity to Declan’s parents, I wasn’t selling them on vague concepts like “character building.” I was offering a calculated investment with specific, trackable outcomes that most coaches never measure.

Declan’s father told me: “We discussed there was a good chance he wouldn’t be chosen as an alternate to compete in singles or doubles, and that his role would be to practice with the team and warm players up before matches. Having the opportunity to experience the tournament, and get the rhythm of the practice and competition schedule, along with getting to see the level of competition, was invaluable.”

Notice what’s missing from that response? No false hope. No promises about “maybe getting in.” Just honest expectation-setting about value that extends beyond match results.

The Identity Shift: The Most Undervalued ROI

Here’s what other coaches get wrong about alternate opportunities: They focus on tennis skills when the real value is psychological repositioning. Making the jump from regional player to national-level competitor is more about how you see yourself than any specific technical improvement.

Declan’s response after watching matches validates this perfectly: “I see myself as one of those players. As I was watching, a lot of these players didn’t seem to be ‘the best’, they were just solid. But they were very good at being solid… I learned that I’m not that far away.”

That mental shift—from “maybe someday” to “I belong here”—typically takes players years to achieve through traditional tournament progression. We accomplished it in 10 days.

The Data Other Coaches Ignore

I’ve never tracked formal metrics on alternate trips, but the pattern is clear: Every player we’ve taken as an alternate has qualified for nationals the following year. That’s anecdotal, but it’s also consistent—and it points to something most coaches miss about development timelines.

Why don’t other coaches encourage these opportunities? Because they can’t handle the parent conversation when the investment doesn’t produce immediate, visible results. They’re afraid of the “why did we pay for him to sit on the sidelines?” discussion.

Declan’s parents would “absolutely” make the same decision again. Their reasoning shows they get it: “The love of the game was reinvigorated. Declan seemed very upbeat and ready to increase his training load and intensity, so that next summer, he would be playing at the tournament. That goal seems more realistic and tangible since traveling to the tournament.”

Red Flags: When to Say No

I don’t recommend alternate opportunities for every player. Here are the red flags that tell me a family isn’t ready:

Player isn’t close to the level – If you need more than 12 months to bridge the gap, the experience becomes demotivating rather than inspiring

Player isn’t “super excited about tennis” – Lukewarm commitment means they won’t absorb the lessons available

Family can’t handle uncertain ROI – If parents need guaranteed match play to justify investment, they’re not ready for elite development thinking

The College Recruiting Reality

College coaches attend nationals to identify talent. Being present as an alternate still gets you conversations with coaches like Mike Fried from Brown and Andrew Rueb from Harvard—interactions that regional tournaments can’t provide.

These aren’t just handshakes. Coaches remember players who show up, contribute to team culture, and demonstrate commitment beyond personal results. Declan’s role as reliable practice partner and teammate supporter communicated character traits that match results alone never reveal.

Why Kalamazoo is Different

Kalamazoo isn’t “just another expensive tournament.” The 80-year history, chair umpires on every court, and elite field create an atmosphere that regional events can’t replicate.

Declan picked up on the technical nuances immediately: “They were very good at the little things that made them like a brick wall, forcing their opponents to do something special to try to win the point.”

That understanding of high-level consistency patterns typically takes years of match experience to develop. He absorbed it in one week of focused observation.

What Most Coaches Won’t Tell You

Many coaches won’t encourage alternate opportunities because they struggle to articulate the ROI beyond generic “experience” language. They’re uncomfortable with investments that don’t produce immediate, measurable results.

The truth is, alternate trips require development thinking from both coaches and families. You’re investing in identity formation, cultural immersion, and strategic positioning that won’t show up in rankings for 12 months.

The Bottom Line

When Declan returns to Kalamazoo next summer—and he will return, as a qualifier—the foundation for that success was built during his 2025 alternate experience. You can’t replicate that mental framework, realistic goal-setting, and cultural immersion through conventional tournament progression.

His parents captured it perfectly: “Each night we spoke to him, we knew we made the right decision.” That kind of confidence—from player, parents, and coach—around an investment with no guaranteed playing time? That’s what separates elite development thinking from the status quo.

Don’t ask whether you can justify over $2,000 for a non-competing experience. Ask whether you can afford to pass up development opportunities while waiting for other coaches to get comfortable with uncertainty.

Jack Newman is CEO of Austin Tennis Academy and has guided multiple players to national championships and Division I college tennis. ATA’s strategic development approach focuses on calculated risk-taking and honest parent education that most academies avoid.